Metta / LU Riga 2-1 Super Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
34%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
17%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
36%
+5.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
33%
Away Win
37%
-3.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.4pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Metta / LU Riga EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Super Nova EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.35/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/0.77
+7% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
304 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
16.3 Crosses 29.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metta / LU Riga
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Super Nova
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.78 xG 1.21
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
307 Passes 318
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.06.2025 Super Nova Super Nova 1-1 HT 0-0 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
06.05.2025 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 0-2 HT 0-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
12.03.2025 Super Nova Super Nova 4-0 HT 1-0 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
08.10.2023 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 0-1 HT 0-1 Super Nova Super Nova LET
21.07.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 1-3 HT 0-1 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
23.05.2023 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 4-1 HT 1-1 Super Nova Super Nova LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Metta / LU Riga
2-1
AWAY Super Nova
1.64 xG 0.40
39% Ball Possession 61%
17 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 11
200 Passes 369
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 31
23 Crosses 35
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Metta / LU Riga vs Super Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Metta / LU Riga edged past Super Nova 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Metta / LU Riga as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Metta / LU Riga had 39% of the ball to Super Nova's 61%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.64 to 0.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Metta / LU Riga's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Super Nova led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Metta / LU Riga and 1.67 for Super Nova.

What was the final score of Metta / LU Riga vs Super Nova?

Metta / LU Riga 2-1 Super Nova in the Latvia - Virsliga on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Metta / LU Riga vs Super Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Metta / LU Riga win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Metta / LU Riga 41%, draw 25%, Super Nova 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Metta / LU Riga), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Metta / LU Riga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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