Metta / LU Riga vs Super Nova Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Metta / LU Riga v Super Nova — Team-Based Signals
Metta / LU Riga vs Super Nova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-1
Super Nova
LET
1-3
HT 0-1
Metta / LU Riga
LET
4-1
HT 1-1
Super Nova
LET
Metta / LU Riga 2-1 Super Nova — Actual Match Statistics
Metta / LU Riga edged past Super Nova 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Metta / LU Riga as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Metta / LU Riga had 39% of the ball to Super Nova's 61%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.64 to 0.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Metta / LU Riga's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Super Nova led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Metta / LU Riga and 1.67 for Super Nova.
What was the final score of Metta / LU Riga vs Super Nova?
Metta / LU Riga 2-1 Super Nova in the Latvia - Virsliga on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Metta / LU Riga vs Super Nova?
Before kick-off our model rated a Metta / LU Riga win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Metta / LU Riga 41%, draw 25%, Super Nova 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Metta / LU Riga), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.