Liepaja 4-1 FK Tukums 2000 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.3
Draw
16%
4.81
Away
14%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
Over 2.5
56%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.88
No
45%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
24%
X/2
6%
X/X
7%
2/1
13%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
72%
-2.3pp
17%
Draw
17%
-0.8pp
14%
Away Win
11%
+3.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.5pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liepaja EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 14%
-8% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +19%
1.52/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/2.36
-22% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -18%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 70%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
25.2 Crosses 11.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liepaja
2W-3D-1L
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.86 xG 0.86
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
378 Passes 254
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
39 Box Touches 14
28 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.06.2025 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-3 HT 0-2 Liepaja Liepaja LET
06.05.2025 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-2 HT 2-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
12.03.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
01.09.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 3-1 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
20.06.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-1 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
02.05.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-0 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liepaja
4-1
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
2.37 xG 0.54
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
483 Passes 257
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
37 Box Touches 10
25 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Liepaja vs FK Tukums 2000
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liepaja ran out comfortable winners over FK Tukums 2000 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Liepaja as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Liepaja had 62% of the ball to FK Tukums 2000's 38%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 2.37 to 0.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liepaja had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Liepaja and 1.00 for FK Tukums 2000.

What was the final score of Liepaja vs FK Tukums 2000?

Liepaja 4-1 FK Tukums 2000 in the Latvia - Virsliga on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liepaja vs FK Tukums 2000?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Liepaja 70%, draw 17%, FK Tukums 2000 14%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liepaja), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liepaja) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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