Deportivo La Guaira 3-1 Estudiantes De Merida — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 14 Nov 2024

📅14/11/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.0
Over 2.5
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.68
No
55%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
9%
1/X
10%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
51%
-4.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.1pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
46%
+8.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
54%
-8.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.6pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo La Guaira EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -6%
1.52/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.47
+4% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
289 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 78%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
17.6 Crosses 18.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 4.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo La Guaira
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.29 xG 0.97
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
304 Passes 252
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
31.10.2024 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
28.09.2024 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 1-1 HT 1-0 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
31.03.2024 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 1-2 HT 0-0 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
02.09.2023 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 2-1 HT 2-0 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
04.03.2023 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 1-3 HT 1-2 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
19.10.2022 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 1-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo La Guaira
3-1
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida
1.54 xG 1.48
50% Ball Possession 50%
20 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
304 Passes 293
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 35
20 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes De Merida
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo La Guaira saw off Estudiantes De Merida 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Deportivo La Guaira as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo La Guaira had 50% of the ball to Estudiantes De Merida's 50%, shots finished 20-18, expected goals 1.54 to 1.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Deportivo La Guaira and 1.33 for Estudiantes De Merida.

What was the final score of Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes De Merida?

Deportivo La Guaira 3-1 Estudiantes De Merida in the Venezuela - Premier League on 14/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes De Merida?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo La Guaira win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Deportivo La Guaira 47%, draw 27%, Estudiantes De Merida 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo La Guaira) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo La Guaira) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
VEN More Venezuela - Premier League
14 Nov 2024
02:00 Carabobo vs Monagas Analysis →