AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Doncaster Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 14 Dec 2024

AFC Wimbledon
1-0 HT 1-0
Doncaster Rovers
📅14/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.78
2-3 Goals
38%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
3.78
6+ Goals
12%
17.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 30% vs market 28.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.63
1/2
8%
32.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
16%
5.27
X/2
14%
5.78
X/X
13%
4.29
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
15%
4.14
2/X
7%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-1.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.1pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AFC Wimbledon v Doncaster Rovers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Doncaster Rovers EU Bookmakers 37%
+4% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +21%
1.33/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.00
+5% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / +9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
301 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 72%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
19.1 Crosses 17.6
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Doncaster Rovers
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.12 xG 0.57
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
226 Passes 294
66% Pass Accuracy 69%
15 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.02.2024 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 1-0 HT 1-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
11.11.2023 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-0 HT 1-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
11.03.2023 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 2-1 HT 2-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
13.08.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-2 HT 0-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
26.02.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-2 HT 1-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN1
07.08.2021 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 1-2 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1

AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Doncaster Rovers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1-0
AWAY Doncaster Rovers
0.69 xG 0.56
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 2
163 Passes 193
53% Pass Accuracy 61%
19 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Wimbledon squeezed past Doncaster Rovers 1-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; AFC Wimbledon found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 50% of the ball to Doncaster Rovers's 50%, shots finished 7-5, expected goals 0.69 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.33 for Doncaster Rovers.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers?

AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Doncaster Rovers in the England - 2nd Division on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 36%, draw 27%, Doncaster Rovers 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/27/36) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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