Doncaster Rovers 1-0 AFC Wimbledon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
36%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.97
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.94
6+ Goals
9%
17.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 31% vs market 27.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.09
1/2
8%
29.5
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
14%
5.73
X/2
11%
5.2
X/X
14%
4.29
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
16%
3.56
2/X
8%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
35%
+1.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
36%
Away Win
38%
-1.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.3pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Doncaster Rovers EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 42%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -18%
1.06/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/0.99
+12% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / +0%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
257 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 72%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.1
14.6 Crosses 23.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Doncaster Rovers
2W-2D-2L
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.70 xG 1.18
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
316 Passes 235
71% Pass Accuracy 68%
14 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.11.2023 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-0 HT 1-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
11.03.2023 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 2-1 HT 2-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
13.08.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-2 HT 0-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
26.02.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-2 HT 1-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN1
07.08.2021 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 1-2 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
26.01.2021 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 2-0 HT 2-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Doncaster Rovers
1-0
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
0.64 xG 0.58
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 2
296 Passes 244
67% Pass Accuracy 62%
25 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Doncaster Rovers vs AFC Wimbledon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Doncaster Rovers squeezed past AFC Wimbledon 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Doncaster Rovers made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Doncaster Rovers had 53% of the ball to AFC Wimbledon's 47%, shots finished 12-4, expected goals 0.64 to 0.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Doncaster Rovers and 1.50 for AFC Wimbledon.

What was the final score of Doncaster Rovers vs AFC Wimbledon?

Doncaster Rovers 1-0 AFC Wimbledon in the England - 2nd Division on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Doncaster Rovers vs AFC Wimbledon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Doncaster Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Doncaster Rovers 37%, draw 27%, AFC Wimbledon 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Doncaster Rovers), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Doncaster Rovers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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