Notts County 1-3 Crewe Alexandra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 24 Feb 2024

Notts County
1-3 HT 0-2
Crewe Alexandra
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Notts County vs Crewe Alexandra Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
35%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.33
Over 2.5
57%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.49
No
42%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.93
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
2.78
6+ Goals
13%
7.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.61
1/2
10%
31.5
1/X
8%
12.2
X/1
13%
4.91
X/2
9%
7.73
X/X
9%
5.45
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2
15%
4.92
2/X
8%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-6.0pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.0pp
35%
Away Win
28%
+7.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
63%
-5.5pp
42%
BTTS No
37%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Notts County v Crewe Alexandra — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 31%
-6% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +14%
1.18/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.26
-4% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
457 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
25.7 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.1

Notts County vs Crewe Alexandra Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Notts County
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.98 xG 1.93
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
429 Passes 297
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 20
31 Crosses 13
5 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 1-0 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
13.04.2019 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 3-0 HT 1-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
29.09.2018 Notts County Notts County 2-1 HT 1-1 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
03.02.2018 Notts County Notts County 4-1 HT 2-1 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
17.10.2017 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 2-0 HT 1-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
14.04.2017 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 2-2 HT 1-1 Notts County Notts County İN2

Notts County 1-3 Crewe Alexandra — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Notts County
1-3
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
0.74 xG 1.47
78% Ball Possession 22%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
570 Passes 110
88% Pass Accuracy 61%
19 Box Touches 15
39 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Notts County vs Crewe Alexandra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crewe Alexandra saw off Notts County 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Notts County at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Notts County had 78% of the ball to Crewe Alexandra's 22%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 0.74 to 1.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crewe Alexandra led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Notts County and 1.67 for Crewe Alexandra.

What was the final score of Notts County vs Crewe Alexandra?

Notts County 1-3 Crewe Alexandra in the England - 2nd Division on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs Crewe Alexandra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Notts County 41%, draw 24%, Crewe Alexandra 35%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Notts County) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Notts County) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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