Gillingham 1-0 Wrexham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.06
6+ Goals
9%
19.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 30% vs market 29.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.9
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
13%
5.49
X/2
11%
5.36
X/X
12%
4.21
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
17%
3.77
2/X
8%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.4pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.7pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gillingham EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Wrexham EU Bookmakers 39%
-4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -14%
1.01/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.40
-43% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -32%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
216 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 74%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
18.7 Crosses 18.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gillingham
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Wrexham
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.64 xG 1.57
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
397 Passes 312
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
12 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 21
11.11.2023 Wrexham Wrexham 2-0 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gillingham
1-0
AWAY Wrexham
1.33 xG 1.38
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 11
215 Passes 330
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 31
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gillingham vs Wrexham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gillingham edged past Wrexham 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Gillingham found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Gillingham had 42% of the ball to Wrexham's 58%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.33 to 1.38.

What was the final score of Gillingham vs Wrexham?

Gillingham 1-0 Wrexham in the England - 2nd Division on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gillingham vs Wrexham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gillingham win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Gillingham 38%, draw 27%, Wrexham 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gillingham), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gillingham) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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