Morecambe 1-1 Grimsby Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 24 Feb 2024

Morecambe
1-1 HT 0-1
Grimsby Town
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Morecambe vs Grimsby Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
30%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.59
6+ Goals
11%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 27% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.37
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
13%
5.15
X/2
13%
5.98
X/X
12%
4.54
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
11%
4.15
2/X
8%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+2.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
30%
Away Win
33%
-3.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.3pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Morecambe v Grimsby Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morecambe EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 37%
-4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -14%
1.72/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.29
-9% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
248 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 68%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
20.8 Crosses 21.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.7

Morecambe vs Grimsby Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Morecambe
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Grimsby Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.45 xG 1.75
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
174 Passes 290
58% Pass Accuracy 69%
18 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 3-2 HT 0-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
20.04.2021 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 0-3 HT 0-2 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
26.12.2020 Morecambe Morecambe 3-1 HT 0-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
05.09.2020 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Morecambe Morecambe İNLK
15.02.2020 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 2-1 HT 0-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
03.08.2019 Morecambe Morecambe 0-2 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2

Morecambe 1-1 Grimsby Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Morecambe
1-1
AWAY Grimsby Town
1.95 xG 1.87
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 4
242 Passes 170
66% Pass Accuracy 55%
24 Box Touches 27
31 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Morecambe vs Grimsby Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Morecambe and Grimsby Town shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Morecambe at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Morecambe had 55% of the ball to Grimsby Town's 45%, shots finished 18-14, expected goals 1.95 to 1.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Grimsby Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Morecambe and 1.50 for Grimsby Town.

What was the final score of Morecambe vs Grimsby Town?

Morecambe 1-1 Grimsby Town in the England - 2nd Division on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morecambe vs Grimsby Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Morecambe win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Morecambe 43%, draw 27%, Grimsby Town 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Morecambe), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Morecambe) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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