Middlesbrough 1-0 Millwall — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
31%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.87
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.81
6+ Goals
9%
17.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 30% vs market 28.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.18
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.2
X/1
15%
3.76
X/2
13%
9.98
X/X
11%
4.88
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
13%
8.37
2/X
6%
17.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
57%
-13.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
31%
Away Win
19%
+12.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Millwall EU Bookmakers 22%
-5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.63/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.28
-8% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +36%
64% Ball Possession 36%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
496 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 70%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
20.4 Crosses 16.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Millwall
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.98 xG 0.77
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
352 Passes 273
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.01.2024 Millwall Millwall 1-3 HT 1-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
05.08.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-1 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
14.01.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-0 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
08.10.2022 Millwall Millwall 2-0 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
12.03.2022 Millwall Millwall 0-0 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
20.11.2021 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-1 HT 1-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
1-0
AWAY Millwall
1.11 xG 1.35
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
423 Passes 274
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 16
9 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Millwall
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough edged past Millwall 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Middlesbrough as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 59% of the ball to Millwall's 41%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.11 to 1.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Middlesbrough and 0.83 for Millwall.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Millwall?

Middlesbrough 1-0 Millwall in the England - Championship on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Millwall?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 43%, draw 26%, Millwall 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Middlesbrough), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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