Motor Lublin 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 14 Dec 2025

📅14/12/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.56
No
42%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.99
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
2.93
6+ Goals
12%
8.99
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.36
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
23.55
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
13%
6.64
X/2
14%
5.28
X/X
11%
5.45
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
20%
3.07
2/X
5%
13.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.55 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
33%
+2.1pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.0pp
42%
Away Win
42%
+0.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.2pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 46%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -10%
1.50/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.42
+13% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -14%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
302 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 82%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.0
24.5 Crosses 17.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motor Lublin
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.78 xG 1.13
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
327 Passes 405
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 3
16.02.2025 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-0 HT 1-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
25.09.2024 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 0-2 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
1-1
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
2.00 xG 1.70
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 21
1 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
283 Passes 316
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 36
24 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia Bialystok shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Jagiellonia Bialystok at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Motor Lublin had 49% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 51%, shots finished 16-21, expected goals 2.00 to 1.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Motor Lublin and 2.50 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Motor Lublin 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated an Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 35%, draw 22%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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