Amarante 3-2 AD Marco 09 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 14 Dec 2025

📅14/12/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.19
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
Over 2.5
42%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.16
No
52%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
14%
X/1
16%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-5.5pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.2pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
42%
+6.1pp
52%
BTTS No
58%
-6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amarante EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY AD Marco 09 EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
0.91/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.26
-30% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
310 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 4.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amarante
0W-0D-1L
AWAY AD Marco 09
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 0
14.09.2025 AD Marco 09 AD Marco 09 1-0 HT 0-0 Amarante Amarante POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amarante
3-2
AWAY AD Marco 09
44% Ball Possession 56%
5 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Amarante vs AD Marco 09
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amarante squeezed past AD Marco 09 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 31% / 33%) promised a tight game; Amarante found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Amarante had 44% of the ball to AD Marco 09's 56%, shots finished 5-11.

What was the final score of Amarante vs AD Marco 09?

Amarante 3-2 AD Marco 09 in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amarante vs AD Marco 09?

Before kick-off our model rated a Amarante win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Amarante 37%, draw 31%, AD Marco 09 33%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Amarante) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Amarante) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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