Anderlecht 1-0 Gent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Cup, 15 Jan 2026

📅15/01/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.0
Over 2.5
55%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.81
No
44%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.61
2-3 Goals
35%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
30%
3.24
6+ Goals
9%
11.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.24 — our 30% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.07
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.05
X/1
17%
4.17
X/2
7%
10.45
X/X
11%
5.61
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
22.25
2/2
9%
8.4
2/X
6%
16.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.25 — our 13% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
58%
-2.3pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.7pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+1.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
46%
-1.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
54%
+1.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.3pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Anderlecht EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Gent EU Bookmakers 22%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -34% / -34%
2.79/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.03/3.55
+26% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -97% / -55%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
412 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.0 Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Anderlecht
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Gent
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.89 xG 0.72
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
406 Passes 297
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.09.2025 Anderlecht Anderlecht 1-0 HT 0-0 Gent Gent BEL
27.04.2025 Gent Gent 0-1 HT 0-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
23.04.2025 Anderlecht Anderlecht 5-0 HT 3-0 Gent Gent BEL
02.02.2025 Gent Gent 1-0 HT 1-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
24.11.2024 Anderlecht Anderlecht 6-0 HT 3-0 Gent Gent BEL
04.02.2024 Anderlecht Anderlecht 1-0 HT 1-0 Gent Gent BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Anderlecht
1-0
AWAY Gent
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Anderlecht vs Gent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Anderlecht nicked a narrow win over Gent 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Anderlecht as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Anderlecht had 51% of the ball to Gent's 49%, shots finished 18-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Anderlecht had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Anderlecht and 0.17 for Gent.

What was the final score of Anderlecht vs Gent?

Anderlecht 1-0 Gent in the Belgium - Cup on 15/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Anderlecht vs Gent?

Before kick-off our model rated a Anderlecht win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Anderlecht 56%, draw 24%, Gent 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Anderlecht) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Anderlecht) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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