Marsilya 5-1 Saint-Etienne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
66%
1.28
Draw
18%
5.28
Away
16%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under
36%
2.89
Over
64%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
18%
6.28
2-3
36%
2.11
4-5
28%
2.44
6+
18%
4.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.41
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
21.7
X/1
17%
3.93
X/2
5%
21.0
X/X
5%
9.72
2/1
10%
19.5
2/2
7%
16.6
2/X
5%
25.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.5 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya The Market 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Saint-Etienne The Market 14%
-8% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -12%
2.18/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/2.46
-8% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -24%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
454 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 76%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
21.8 Crosses 12.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Saint-Etienne
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.44 xG 0.61
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
617 Passes 242
89% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.12.2024 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 0-4 HT 0-2 Marsilya Marsilya FRK
08.12.2024 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 0-2 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
03.04.2022 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 2-4 HT 1-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
28.08.2021 Marsilya Marsilya 3-1 HT 1-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
28.07.2021 Marsilya Marsilya 2-1 HT 1-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne HAZ
09.05.2021 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-0 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
5-1
AWAY Saint-Etienne
6.43 xG 1.03
71% Ball Possession 29%
28 Total Shots 7
14 Shots on Target 2
14 Corners 3
755 Passes 283
92% Pass Accuracy 81%
51 Box Touches 12
33 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW Marsilya vs Saint-Etienne
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Marsilya swept aside Saint-Etienne 5-1. Half-time: 1-0. With 6 goals, entertainment was never the problem.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Marsilya as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals call finished the job: over 2.5 goals (64%) landed.

On the day, Marsilya had 71% of the ball to Saint-Etienne's 29%, shots finished 28-7, expected goals 6.43 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Marsilya and 0.83 for Saint-Etienne.

Marsilya vs Saint-Etienne Result & Final Score

Marsilya 5-1 Saint-Etienne in the France - Ligue 1 on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Marsilya vs Saint-Etienne Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 66%, draw 18%, Saint-Etienne 16%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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