Omiya Ardija 2-1 Montedio Yamagata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
37%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.39
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.18
6+ Goals
12%
11.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-2.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+2.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.5pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Omiya Ardija EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 38%
-10% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +11%
1.31/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.14
-1% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 22.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Omiya Ardija
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
352 Passes 387
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-1 HT 0-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
08.04.2023 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 2-1 HT 1-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
05.10.2022 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-1 HT 0-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
23.04.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-0 HT 2-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
14.11.2021 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-2 HT 1-2 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
03.07.2021 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-3 HT 1-2 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Omiya Ardija
2-1
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
292 Passes 390
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Crosses 18
POST-MATCH Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Omiya Ardija nicked a narrow win over Montedio Yamagata 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Omiya Ardija found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Omiya Ardija had 44% of the ball to Montedio Yamagata's 56%, shots finished 17-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montedio Yamagata led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Omiya Ardija and 1.67 for Montedio Yamagata.

What was the final score of Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?

Omiya Ardija 2-1 Montedio Yamagata in the Japan - J2 League on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Omiya Ardija win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Omiya Ardija 37%, draw 27%, Montedio Yamagata 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/27/37) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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