V-Varen Nagasaki 3-2 Roasso Kumamoto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.11
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
2.81
6+ Goals
11%
8.22
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.11 — our 26% vs market 18.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-4.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.9pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Roasso Kumamoto EU Bookmakers 29%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +1%
2.14/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.16
+41% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +16%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
358 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.0 Crosses 27.0
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Roasso Kumamoto
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
384 Passes 457
0 Yellow Cards 1
06.07.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 HT 2-0 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto JAP2
07.04.2024 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 3-4 HT 0-3 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
29.07.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 4-1 HT 2-0 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto JAP2
19.03.2023 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 0-2 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
10.09.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-3 HT 1-1 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto JAP2
21.03.2022 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 2-0 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
3-2
AWAY Roasso Kumamoto
59% Ball Possession 41%
26 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 3
496 Passes 287
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Roasso Kumamoto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki edged past Roasso Kumamoto 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had V-Varen Nagasaki as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 59% of the ball to Roasso Kumamoto's 41%, shots finished 26-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.50 for Roasso Kumamoto.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Roasso Kumamoto?

V-Varen Nagasaki 3-2 Roasso Kumamoto in the Japan - J2 League on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Roasso Kumamoto?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 45%, draw 26%, Roasso Kumamoto 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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