Club America 2-3 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.49
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.16
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
2.79
6+ Goals
11%
8.04
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.16 — our 28% vs market 17.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
63%
-7.9pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.6pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.0pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Club America EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 20%
+1% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.83/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.64
+13% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -7%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
373 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 77%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
18.8 Crosses 15.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Club America
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Necaxa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.82 xG 0.73
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
443 Passes 222
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
22.09.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 1-0 Club America Club America MEK
28.01.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 0-0 HT 0-0 Club America Club America MEK
24.08.2023 Club America Club America 3-2 HT 2-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
12.02.2023 Club America Club America 2-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
11.09.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 1-2 HT 1-0 Club America Club America MEK
03.04.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 0-1 HT 0-0 Club America Club America MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Club America
2-3
AWAY Necaxa
2.01 xG 0.76
70% Ball Possession 30%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
451 Passes 156
87% Pass Accuracy 68%
44 Box Touches 14
30 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Club America vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa nicked a narrow win over Club America 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Club America carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Club America had 70% of the ball to Necaxa's 30%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.01 to 0.76 — on chances, Club America could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Club America had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Club America and 0.83 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Club America vs Necaxa?

Club America 2-3 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Club America vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Club America win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Club America 55%, draw 23%, Necaxa 22%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Club America) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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