Tondela vs Mafra Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Tondela v Mafra — Team-Based Signals
Tondela vs Mafra Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 0-0
Mafra
POR2
1-2
HT 1-1
Mafra
POR2
1-1
HT 1-1
Tondela
POR2
1-1
HT 1-0
Tondela
POK
Tondela 1-0 Mafra — Actual Match Statistics
Tondela squeezed past Mafra 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tondela as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Tondela had 46% of the ball to Mafra's 54%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 3.18 to 0.84 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tondela's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tondela had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Tondela and 1.00 for Mafra.
What was the final score of Tondela vs Mafra?
Tondela 1-0 Mafra in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Tondela vs Mafra?
Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Tondela 44%, draw 26%, Mafra 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tondela), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.