Alfreton Town 1-1 Oxford City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
36%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.79
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.74
6+ Goals
9%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 29% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
46%
-8.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
37%
Away Win
27%
+9.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.5pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Oxford City EU Bookmakers 31%
+7% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.48/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.22
-2% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
267 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alfreton Town
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Oxford City
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.11.2024 Oxford City Oxford City 1-2 HT 1-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alfreton Town
1-1
AWAY Oxford City
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alfreton Town vs Oxford City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfreton Town and Oxford City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Alfreton Town had 52% of the ball to Oxford City's 48%, shots finished 11-4.

What was the final score of Alfreton Town vs Oxford City?

Alfreton Town 1-1 Oxford City in the England - Conference on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alfreton Town vs Oxford City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alfreton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Alfreton Town 38%, draw 26%, Oxford City 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Alfreton Town), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alfreton Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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