Farnborough 2-1 Welling United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
24%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.21
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.31
6+ Goals
9%
12.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 25% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
51%
-2.2pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.1pp
24%
Away Win
25%
-0.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farnborough EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Welling United EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +1%
1.45/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.53
-11% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
359 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farnborough
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Welling United
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.08.2024 Welling United Welling United 4-1 HT 3-1 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
05.03.2024 Farnborough Farnborough 1-0 HT 1-0 Welling United Welling United İCON
07.10.2023 Welling United Welling United 2-2 HT 1-1 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
07.03.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 0-0 HT 0-0 Welling United Welling United İCON
06.12.2022 Welling United Welling United 1-2 HT 0-1 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farnborough
2-1
AWAY Welling United
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Farnborough vs Welling United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farnborough squeezed past Welling United 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Farnborough as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Farnborough had 53% of the ball to Welling United's 47%, shots finished 10-8.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Farnborough had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Farnborough and 1.40 for Welling United.

What was the final score of Farnborough vs Welling United?

Farnborough 2-1 Welling United in the England - Conference on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farnborough vs Welling United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farnborough win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Farnborough 49%, draw 27%, Welling United 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Farnborough), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Farnborough) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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