Welling United 4-1 Farnborough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
47%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
15.65
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.72 — our 27% vs market 21.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
23%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
28%
+0.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
47%
Away Win
45%
+1.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.5pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Welling United EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Farnborough EU Bookmakers 49%
+0% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -14%
1.43/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.18
+11% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
300 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Welling United
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Farnborough
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
05.03.2024 Farnborough Farnborough 1-0 HT 1-0 Welling United Welling United İCON
07.10.2023 Welling United Welling United 2-2 HT 1-1 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
07.03.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 0-0 HT 0-0 Welling United Welling United İCON
06.12.2022 Welling United Welling United 1-2 HT 0-1 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Welling United
4-1
AWAY Farnborough
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Welling United vs Farnborough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Welling United ran out comfortable winners over Farnborough 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Farnborough at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Welling United had 45% of the ball to Farnborough's 55%, shots finished 11-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Farnborough led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Welling United and 1.25 for Farnborough.

What was the final score of Welling United vs Farnborough?

Welling United 4-1 Farnborough in the England - Conference on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Welling United vs Farnborough?

Before kick-off our model rated an Farnborough win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Welling United 29%, draw 25%, Farnborough 47%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Farnborough) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Farnborough) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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