Needham Market 2-1 Chorley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.73
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.82
6+ Goals
7%
17.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 33% vs market 29.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+6.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
40%
Away Win
47%
-6.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.7pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Needham Market EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Chorley EU Bookmakers 51%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -14%
1.09/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.23
-10% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
237 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Needham Market
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Chorley
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 4
12.10.2024 Chorley Chorley 1-0 HT 1-0 Needham Market Needham Market İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Needham Market
2-1
AWAY Chorley
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Needham Market vs Chorley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Needham Market squeezed past Chorley 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 26% / 40% — and on the day Needham Market made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Needham Market had 47% of the ball to Chorley's 53%, shots finished 7-6.

What was the final score of Needham Market vs Chorley?

Needham Market 2-1 Chorley in the England - Conference on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Needham Market vs Chorley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chorley win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Needham Market 34%, draw 26%, Chorley 40%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Chorley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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