Longford Town 3-2 Kerry — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.99
2-3 Goals
43%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
3.51
6+ Goals
7%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 29% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.8pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-2.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.8pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Longford Town EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Kerry EU Bookmakers 45%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.07/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/2.00
-19% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -32%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
274 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Longford Town
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Kerry
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.08.2024 Longford Town Longford Town 2-2 HT 1-1 Kerry İR1
13.06.2024 Kerry 2-1 HT 1-1 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
06.05.2024 Longford Town Longford Town 2-1 HT 2-0 Kerry İR1
05.04.2024 Kerry 3-0 HT 2-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
08.09.2023 Kerry 0-0 HT 0-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
15.07.2023 Longford Town Longford Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Kerry İR1
POST-MATCH Longford Town vs Kerry
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Longford Town edged past Kerry 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Longford Town made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Longford Town and 1.50 for Kerry.

What was the final score of Longford Town vs Kerry?

Longford Town 3-2 Kerry in the Ireland - 1st Division on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Longford Town vs Kerry?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kerry win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Longford Town 35%, draw 27%, Kerry 38%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kerry) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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