Lugo 2-1 Unionistas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.48
Over 2.5
40%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.09
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
5.34
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+2.5pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.0pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
64%
-4.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
36%
+4.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.0pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugo EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Unionistas EU Bookmakers 36%
-11% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -18%
0.74/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.35
-36% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
270 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 18.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugo
0W-3D-0L
AWAY Unionistas
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.10.2024 Unionistas Unionistas 1-1 Lugo Lugo İS3
10.03.2024 Lugo Lugo 1-1 HT 0-1 Unionistas Unionistas İS3
05.11.2023 Unionistas Unionistas 1-1 HT 1-1 Lugo Lugo İS3
POST-MATCH Lugo vs Unionistas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugo edged past Unionistas 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Lugo found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lugo and 1.00 for Unionistas.

What was the final score of Lugo vs Unionistas?

Lugo 2-1 Unionistas in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugo vs Unionistas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugo win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lugo 40%, draw 29%, Unionistas 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lugo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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