Genk 2-1 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
37%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.62
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
3.15
6+ Goals
10%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.62 — our 29% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.59
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.25
X/1
15%
5.78
X/2
13%
6.01
X/X
12%
4.8
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
18%
3.82
2/X
8%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-2.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
37%
Away Win
35%
+2.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.0pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 38%
+2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +10%
1.60/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.14
+11% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +44%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
373 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 77%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
17.0 Crosses 16.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.16 xG 1.72
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
333 Passes 283
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 34
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 4-0 HT 2-0 Genk Genk BEL
26.05.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-0 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
01.04.2024 Genk Genk 1-0 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
03.02.2024 Genk Genk 0-1 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
16.09.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 0-2 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL
21.05.2023 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 1-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
2-1
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
2.70 xG 0.97
55% Ball Possession 45%
21 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
385 Passes 308
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
33 Box Touches 35
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk edged past Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and on the day Genk made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Genk had 55% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 45%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 2.70 to 0.97 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Genk's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Genk and 1.33 for Union Saint-Gilloise.

What was the final score of Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Genk 2-1 Union Saint-Gilloise in the Belgium - Pro League on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated an Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Genk 36%, draw 27%, Union Saint-Gilloise 37%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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