Utrecht 0-1 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.39
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
3.3
6+ Goals
10%
12.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.29
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
15%
4.37
X/2
14%
9.02
X/X
13%
5.01
2/1
6%
23.0
2/2
10%
7.03
2/X
7%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+6.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.0pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 25%
-3% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +13%
1.91/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.52
-14% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +38%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
339 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 75%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
24.5 Crosses 16.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht
3W-2D-1L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.55 xG 1.30
47% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
339 Passes 384
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
24.11.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-2 HT 0-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
17.03.2024 Utrecht Utrecht 1-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
23.09.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-0 HT 2-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
12.03.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-2 HT 1-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
16.09.2022 Utrecht Utrecht 0-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
29.04.2022 Utrecht Utrecht 1-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht
0-1
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.89 xG 1.48
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
356 Passes 294
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen edged past Utrecht 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Utrecht at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Utrecht had 54% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 46%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 1.89 to 1.48 — on chances, Utrecht could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Utrecht had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Utrecht and 1.00 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?

Utrecht 0-1 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Utrecht 46%, draw 26%, NEC Nijmegen 28%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Utrecht) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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