Heerenveen 1-1 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.24
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
27%
3.42
6+ Goals
10%
13.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.44
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.05
X/1
19%
4.48
X/2
7%
8.54
X/X
12%
4.73
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.85
2/2
13%
6.62
2/X
7%
14.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.85 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-3.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+3.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.3pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 26%
-9% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -6%
1.84/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.63
-12% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
356 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 74%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
20.7 Crosses 17.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Heracles
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.26 xG 1.07
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
386 Passes 339
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.09.2024 Heracles Heracles 2-1 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
14.04.2024 Heracles Heracles 0-2 HT 0-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
28.10.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-0 HT 2-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
18.03.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
04.12.2021 Heracles Heracles 0-1 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
23.01.2021 Heracles Heracles 1-0 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen
1-1
AWAY Heracles
1.06 xG 0.62
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
494 Passes 248
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 11
32 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Heerenveen vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heerenveen and Heracles shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Heerenveen at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Heerenveen had 65% of the ball to Heracles's 35%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 1.06 to 0.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heerenveen had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Heerenveen and 0.50 for Heracles.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs Heracles?

Heerenveen 1-1 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 46%, draw 28%, Heracles 26%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Heerenveen) ✗ Over 2.5
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