Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 PEC Zwolle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.37
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.31
6+ Goals
10%
12.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.16
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.05
X/1
15%
4.22
X/2
10%
9.72
X/X
11%
5.13
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.0
2/2
10%
7.76
2/X
8%
15.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 10% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-8.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.6pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 23%
-8% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +4%
1.64/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.91
-8% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +20%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
426 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
24.2 Crosses 12.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sparta Rotterdam
3W-1D-2L
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.55 xG 1.41
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
297 Passes 374
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2024 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-0 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
04.02.2024 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
12.08.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-2 HT 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
11.05.2022 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 HT 2-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
22.09.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-1 HT 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
03.04.2021 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 3-2 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sparta Rotterdam
1-1
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.76 xG 1.12
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 4
428 Passes 274
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 12
POST-MATCH Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Sparta Rotterdam at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sparta Rotterdam had 59% of the ball to PEC Zwolle's 41%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.76 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Rotterdam had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.17 for PEC Zwolle.

What was the final score of Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 PEC Zwolle in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sparta Rotterdam 48%, draw 26%, PEC Zwolle 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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