FS Jelgava 1-1 Riga FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
9.57
Draw
18%
5.71
Away
67%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
Over 2.5
56%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.9
No
60%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
5%
X/2
18%
X/X
4%
2/1
4%
2/2
42%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
15%
Home Win
7%
+7.5pp
18%
Draw
14%
+4.1pp
67%
Away Win
79%
-11.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.9pp
60%
BTTS No
51%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Riga FC EU Bookmakers 84%
+7% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -10%
0.77/2.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.06/0.73
-27% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +47%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
234 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 404 · 81%
12.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 48.3
13.3 Crosses 31.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FS Jelgava
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Riga FC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
0.78 xG 3.28
32% Ball Possession 68%
9 Total Shots 22
5 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 9
176 Passes 537
63% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 42
9 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-2 HT 0-0 Riga FC Riga FC LET
19.07.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 6-1 HT 4-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
19.05.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 1-5 HT 0-3 Riga FC Riga FC LET
08.04.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 2-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
01.09.2023 Riga FC Riga FC 3-5 HT 2-3 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
25.06.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 1-3 HT 1-1 Riga FC Riga FC LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FS Jelgava
1-1
AWAY Riga FC
0.40 xG 1.82
40% Ball Possession 60%
5 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 7
196 Passes 339
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 28
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FS Jelgava vs Riga FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FS Jelgava and Riga FC shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Riga FC at 67% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FS Jelgava had 40% of the ball to Riga FC's 60%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.40 to 1.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Riga FC led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FS Jelgava and 3.50 for Riga FC.

What was the final score of FS Jelgava vs Riga FC?

FS Jelgava 1-1 Riga FC in the Latvia - Virsliga on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FS Jelgava vs Riga FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Riga FC win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split FS Jelgava 15%, draw 18%, Riga FC 67%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Riga FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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