Necaxa 2-1 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 15 Mar 2025

Necaxa
2-1 HT 2-0
Leon
📅15/03/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Necaxa vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.49
No
43%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.51
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.69
6+ Goals
12%
7.17
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
63%
-6.1pp
43%
BTTS No
37%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Necaxa v Leon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 33%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
1.40/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.33
+5% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
304 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 80%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
20.5 Crosses 14.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1

Necaxa vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Leon
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.76 xG 1.57
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
192 Passes 394
71% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.07.2024 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
01.04.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 1-2 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
03.09.2023 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
17.01.2023 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
03.09.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 3-2 HT 3-0 Leon Leon MEK
26.02.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 0-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK

Necaxa 2-1 Leon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
2-1
AWAY Leon
0.74 xG 1.56
29% Ball Possession 71%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
163 Passes 456
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 33
7 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa nicked a narrow win over Leon 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Necaxa as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Necaxa had 29% of the ball to Leon's 71%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 0.74 to 1.56 — on chances, Leon could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Necaxa and 1.50 for Leon.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Leon?

Necaxa 2-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 41%, draw 26%, Leon 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Necaxa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Necaxa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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