Puebla 0-3 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 15 Mar 2025

Puebla
0-3 HT 0-1
Toluca
📅15/03/2025 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Puebla vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
4.13
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
43%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.61
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
10.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.61 — our 25% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
31%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
21%
+11.8pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.1pp
43%
Away Win
56%
-12.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.1pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puebla v Toluca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 61%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.15/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/0.93
+8% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +6%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
285 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 409 · 83%
16.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
17.8 Crosses 15.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Puebla vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Toluca
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.06 xG 1.66
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
302 Passes 417
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
23.10.2024 Toluca Toluca 5-0 HT 2-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
27.01.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
01.11.2023 Toluca Toluca 0-1 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
08.04.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-2 HT 0-2 Toluca Toluca MEK
03.08.2022 Toluca Toluca 1-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
03.04.2022 Toluca Toluca 2-1 HT 2-1 Puebla Puebla MEK

Puebla 0-3 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
0-3
AWAY Toluca
1.24 xG 2.61
34% Ball Possession 66%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
244 Passes 550
78% Pass Accuracy 88%
11 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca cruised past Puebla 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Puebla had 34% of the ball to Toluca's 66%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.24 to 2.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Puebla and 1.83 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Toluca?

Puebla 0-3 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Puebla 32%, draw 24%, Toluca 43%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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