Toluca 5-0 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 23 Oct 2024

📅23/10/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
16%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.31
2-3 Goals
38%
1.99
4-5 Goals
28%
2.69
6+ Goals
13%
6.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
11%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
69%
-5.4pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.0pp
16%
Away Win
13%
+3.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toluca EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 16%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +2%
1.96/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/2.05
+25% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
390 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 79%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
14.0 Crosses 15.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Puebla
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.20 xG 1.31
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
385 Passes 283
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
27.01.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
01.11.2023 Toluca Toluca 0-1 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
08.04.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-2 HT 0-2 Toluca Toluca MEK
03.08.2022 Toluca Toluca 1-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
03.04.2022 Toluca Toluca 2-1 HT 2-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
06.11.2021 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
5-0
AWAY Puebla
3.48 xG 0.45
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 13
12 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
501 Passes 325
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Toluca vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca cruised past Puebla 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Toluca had 59% of the ball to Puebla's 41%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 3.48 to 0.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Toluca and 1.00 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Toluca vs Puebla?

Toluca 5-0 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toluca vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Toluca 63%, draw 21%, Puebla 16%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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