Toluca vs Puebla Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Puebla — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Puebla Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Puebla
MEK
1-2
HT 0-2
Toluca
MEK
1-1
HT 0-1
Puebla
MEK
2-1
HT 2-1
Puebla
MEK
1-0
HT 0-0
Toluca
MEK
Toluca 5-0 Puebla — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca cruised past Puebla 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Toluca had 59% of the ball to Puebla's 41%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 3.48 to 0.45.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Toluca and 1.00 for Puebla.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Puebla?
Toluca 5-0 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Puebla?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Toluca 63%, draw 21%, Puebla 16%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.