Guadalajara 3-2 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 23 Oct 2024

📅23/10/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.24
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.63
6+ Goals
9%
14.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 26% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.0pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.8pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.9pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 23%
-8% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +0%
1.59/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.40
-1% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
341 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 76%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
21.1 Crosses 16.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Necaxa
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.35 xG 1.03
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
343 Passes 236
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
17 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.02.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 1-0 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
14.07.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
09.04.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
20.08.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 0-4 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
30.04.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
29.08.2021 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
3-2
AWAY Necaxa
1.89 xG 1.19
60% Ball Possession 40%
24 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 2
454 Passes 273
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara nicked a narrow win over Necaxa 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guadalajara had 60% of the ball to Necaxa's 40%, shots finished 24-9, expected goals 1.89 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Guadalajara and 0.33 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Necaxa?

Guadalajara 3-2 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 48%, draw 30%, Necaxa 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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