Farense 0-1 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 15 Mar 2025

Farense
0-1 HT 0-0
Sporting Braga
📅15/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Farense vs Sporting Braga Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
43%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.88
No
59%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.73
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.99
6+ Goals
9%
18.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 33% vs market 29.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
6.11
1/2
8%
26.5
1/X
7%
14.8
X/1
9%
7.58
X/2
11%
4.44
X/X
15%
4.34
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.69
2/X
6%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS No — 59% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
26%
+4.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-4.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.1pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Farense v Sporting Braga — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 51%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.31/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.35
+10% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
283 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 76%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
23.4 Crosses 20.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.6

Farense vs Sporting Braga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sporting Braga
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.38 xG 2.52
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
206 Passes 459
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 36
15 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.10.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-0 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR
18.02.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-1 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
16.09.2023 Farense Farense 3-1 HT 2-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
05.04.2021 Farense Farense 1-2 HT 1-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
29.11.2020 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
22.11.2015 Farense Farense 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POK

Farense 0-1 Sporting Braga — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
0-1
AWAY Sporting Braga
0.41 xG 1.42
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 4
218 Passes 304
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 25
30 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Farense vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga nicked a narrow win over Farense 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Farense had 44% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 56%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 0.41 to 1.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Farense and 1.33 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Farense vs Sporting Braga?

Farense 0-1 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Premier League on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Farense 30%, draw 28%, Sporting Braga 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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