Sporting CP 3-1 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.34
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
20%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.05
2-3 Goals
44%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
2.93
6+ Goals
8%
8.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.58
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
19.0
X/1
17%
3.8
X/2
8%
16.7
X/X
7%
6.89
2/1
8%
22.55
2/2
8%
14.5
2/X
7%
22.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Sporting CP win — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
70%
-11.6pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.6pp
20%
Away Win
12%
+8.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.4pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 15%
+1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +9%
2.29/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/2.35
+11% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
404 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 72%
34.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
23.5 Crosses 12.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Famalicao
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.05 xG 0.58
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
441 Passes 287
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2024 Famalicao Famalicao 0-3 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
16.04.2024 Famalicao Famalicao 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
27.08.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-0 HT 0-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
30.04.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-1 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
13.11.2022 Famalicao Famalicao 1-2 HT 0-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
06.02.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
3-1
AWAY Famalicao
3.87 xG 1.05
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 4
384 Passes 325
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
50 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP beat Famalicao 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting CP had 53% of the ball to Famalicao's 47%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 3.87 to 1.05.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sporting CP and 0.33 for Famalicao.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Famalicao?

Sporting CP 3-1 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 58%, draw 22%, Famalicao 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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