Kasımpaşa 2-1 Alanyaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.29
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.37
6+ Goals
12%
12.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.5
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
20%
4.56
X/2
12%
8.25
X/X
13%
4.75
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.85
2/2
10%
6.29
2/X
6%
14.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.85 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-4.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Alanyaspor EU Bookmakers 28%
-8% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +3%
1.62/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.36
-3% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
367 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
25.0 Crosses 17.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kasımpaşa
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Alanyaspor
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.92 xG 1.37
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
305 Passes 427
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2024 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 1-2 HT 0-2 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
04.02.2024 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-1 HT 1-1 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
17.09.2023 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 3-3 HT 2-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
30.05.2023 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 1-3 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
04.01.2023 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 4-1 HT 2-0 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
13.02.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-2 HT 0-1 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kasımpaşa
2-1
AWAY Alanyaspor
2.30 xG 2.14
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 6
260 Passes 323
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kasımpaşa squeezed past Alanyaspor 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kasımpaşa as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Kasımpaşa had 45% of the ball to Alanyaspor's 55%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 2.30 to 2.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kasımpaşa had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.50 for Alanyaspor.

What was the final score of Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?

Kasımpaşa 2-1 Alanyaspor in the Turkey - Super League on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kasımpaşa win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Kasımpaşa 45%, draw 28%, Alanyaspor 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kasımpaşa), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kasımpaşa) ✓ BTTS Yes
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