Nacional de Football 3-1 Deportes Tolima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 15 Apr 2026

Nacional de Football
3-1 HT 0-0
Deportes Tolima
📅15/04/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2026

Nacional de Football vs Deportes Tolima Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.59
Over 2.5
43%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.35
2-3 Goals
41%
1.7
4-5 Goals
19%
4.49
6+ Goals
7%
24.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.74
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
4%
14.0
X/1
14%
4.35
X/2
11%
7.49
X/X
12%
3.93
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
11%
6.31
2/X
11%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-3.8pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.1pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nacional de Football v Deportes Tolima — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 28%
+2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.15/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.35
+20% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -81% / +37%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
311 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
23.6 Crosses 13.1
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.2
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs Deportes Tolima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football saw off Deportes Tolima 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nacional de Football as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs Deportes Tolima?

Nacional de Football 3-1 Deportes Tolima in the Copa Libertadores on 15/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs Deportes Tolima?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 44%, draw 27%, Deportes Tolima 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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