Pachuca 1-0 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 15 May 2026

Pachuca
1-0 HT 1-0
Pumas UNAM
📅15/05/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2025/2026

Pachuca vs Pumas UNAM Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.22
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
23%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
12.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.73
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
17%
4.73
X/2
8%
7.33
X/X
15%
4.74
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.95
2/2
16%
5.38
2/X
5%
13.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.95 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-5.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
+0.2pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pachuca v Pumas UNAM — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
1.47/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.46
+12% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
312 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
18.3 Crosses 15.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Pachuca vs Pumas UNAM Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.24 xG 1.10
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
320 Passes 360
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.04.2026 Pachuca Pachuca 0-2 HT 0-2 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
21.11.2025 Pachuca Pachuca 3-1 HT 2-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
20.07.2025 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-3 HT 2-2 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
17.02.2025 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 2-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
22.07.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-0 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
03.05.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 0-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK

Pachuca 1-0 Pumas UNAM — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
1-0
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.23 xG 0.29
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 1
329 Passes 350
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 8
20 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca squeezed past Pumas UNAM 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pachuca as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pachuca had 49% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 51%, shots finished 15-5, expected goals 1.23 to 0.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Pachuca and 1.33 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Pumas UNAM?

Pachuca 1-0 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 15/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 42%, draw 26%, Pumas UNAM 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pachuca) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pachuca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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