Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Pumas UNAM v Pachuca — Team-Based Signals
Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Pumas UNAM
MEK
0-2
HT 0-0
Pachuca
MEK
Pumas UNAM 2-3 Pachuca — Actual Match Statistics
Pachuca nicked a narrow win over Pumas UNAM 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Pachuca as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Pumas UNAM had 63% of the ball to Pachuca's 37%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 1.03 to 2.27 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Pachuca's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.00 for Pachuca.
What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca?
Pumas UNAM 2-3 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca?
Before kick-off our model rated an Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 31%, draw 27%, Pachuca 42%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pachuca), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.