Pumas UNAM 2-3 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
42%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.71
Over 2.5
51%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.72
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
23%
3.96
6+ Goals
10%
18.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
21%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.4pp
42%
Away Win
40%
+2.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
55%
-5.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
45%
+5.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.5pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 43%
-4% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -10%
1.25/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.32
-26% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
262 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 79%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
16.4 Crosses 17.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Pachuca
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.88 xG 1.42
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 9
243 Passes 379
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.02.2025 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 2-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
22.07.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-0 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
03.05.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 0-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
29.01.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 3-1 HT 2-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
17.07.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 1-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
19.03.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-2 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
2-3
AWAY Pachuca
1.03 xG 2.27
63% Ball Possession 37%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 1
413 Passes 230
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca nicked a narrow win over Pumas UNAM 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Pachuca as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 63% of the ball to Pachuca's 37%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 1.03 to 2.27 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Pachuca's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.00 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca?

Pumas UNAM 2-3 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 31%, draw 27%, Pachuca 42%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pachuca), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pachuca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
20 Jul 2025
04:00 Leon vs Guadalajara Analysis →
04:00 Tigres UANL vs FC Juarez Analysis →
06:05 Atlas vs Cruz Azul Analysis →