Leon 1-0 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 20 Jul 2025

Leon
1-0 HT 0-0
Guadalajara
📅20/07/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2025/2026

Leon vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
36%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.81
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.83
6+ Goals
9%
17.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 30% vs market 28.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
9%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+0.2pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.8pp
36%
Away Win
40%
-3.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.0pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leon v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 43%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.25/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.09
+10% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +25%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
277 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 82%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
19.6 Crosses 17.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Leon vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Guadalajara
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.34 xG 1.43
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
348 Passes 297
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.01.2025 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 1-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
19.09.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-0 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK
10.03.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-2 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
04.07.2023 Leon Leon 1-2 HT 1-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
16.04.2023 Leon Leon 0-2 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
21.07.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK

Leon 1-0 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
1-0
AWAY Guadalajara
1.17 xG 1.30
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
217 Passes 519
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
11 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Leon vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon edged past Guadalajara 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 31% / 36%) promised a tight game; Leon found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Leon had 34% of the ball to Guadalajara's 66%, shots finished 6-18, expected goals 1.17 to 1.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Leon and 1.33 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Leon vs Guadalajara?

Leon 1-0 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Leon 33%, draw 31%, Guadalajara 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Guadalajara) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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