Leon 2-1 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 29 Jan 2025

Leon
2-1 HT 1-1
Guadalajara
📅29/01/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Leon vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.7
2-3 Goals
38%
1.71
4-5 Goals
18%
3.88
6+ Goals
11%
18.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.7 — our 33% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+0.5pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.4pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leon v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 40%
+5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.40/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.09
-8% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
287 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 80%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
19.5 Crosses 16.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Leon vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Guadalajara
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.32 xG 1.47
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
346 Passes 304
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.09.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-0 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK
10.03.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-2 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
04.07.2023 Leon Leon 1-2 HT 1-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
16.04.2023 Leon Leon 0-2 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
21.07.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
20.02.2022 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK

Leon 2-1 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
2-1
AWAY Guadalajara
1.42 xG 0.86
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
304 Passes 367
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leon vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon edged past Guadalajara 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Leon found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leon had 46% of the ball to Guadalajara's 54%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.42 to 0.86.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Leon and 1.33 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Leon vs Guadalajara?

Leon 2-1 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 29/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Leon 36%, draw 28%, Guadalajara 36%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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