Necaxa 1-3 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 29 Jan 2025

📅29/01/2025 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.79
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
3.74
6+ Goals
10%
16.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+1.7pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.1pp
40%
Away Win
43%
-2.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +8%
1.16/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.22
+10% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -8%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
273 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 79%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
18.6 Crosses 18.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cruz Azul
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.98 xG 1.64
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
223 Passes 402
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 3-0 HT 2-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
17.03.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-2 HT 1-2 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
05.10.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-3 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
22.01.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-0 HT 1-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
31.07.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
08.05.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-1 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
1-3
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.80 xG 1.96
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
278 Passes 354
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul got the better of Necaxa 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (30% / 29% / 40%) promised a tight game; Cruz Azul found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Necaxa had 46% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 54%, shots finished 13-20, expected goals 1.80 to 1.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Necaxa and 1.50 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Cruz Azul?

Necaxa 1-3 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 29/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 30%, draw 29%, Cruz Azul 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ Under 2.5
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