Tigres UANL 1-0 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.42
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
22%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.19
No
52%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
2.97
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.63
6+ Goals
9%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 29% vs market 27.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
66%
-16.1pp
28%
Draw
22%
+6.1pp
22%
Away Win
12%
+10.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
42%
+6.0pp
52%
BTTS No
58%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 15%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
1.70/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.71
-2% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +0%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
363 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 78%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.5
23.7 Crosses 14.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
3W-2D-1L
AWAY FC Juarez
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.41 xG 0.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
391 Passes 285
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 10
25 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
26.02.2025 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 0-1 HT 0-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
23.09.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-1 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
29.02.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
09.07.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
15.02.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
27.07.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-1 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tigres UANL
1-0
AWAY FC Juarez
1.67 xG 0.40
64% Ball Possession 36%
22 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
553 Passes 273
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 9
14 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tigres UANL vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL nicked a narrow win over FC Juarez 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tigres UANL as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Tigres UANL had 64% of the ball to FC Juarez's 36%, shots finished 22-5, expected goals 1.67 to 0.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tigres UANL's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Tigres UANL and 0.33 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs FC Juarez?

Tigres UANL 1-0 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 50%, draw 28%, FC Juarez 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tigres UANL), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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