Pachuca 3-1 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 21 Nov 2025

📅21/11/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.74
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.93
6+ Goals
9%
18.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.83
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.15
X/1
14%
4.56
X/2
10%
7.27
X/X
15%
4.48
2/1
9%
27.0
2/2
12%
5.77
2/X
5%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.6pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.56/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.48
+13% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
311 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
19.4 Crosses 15.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.35 xG 0.94
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
340 Passes 285
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
20.07.2025 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-3 HT 2-2 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
17.02.2025 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 2-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
22.07.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-0 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
03.05.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 0-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
29.01.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 3-1 HT 2-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
17.07.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 1-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
3-1
AWAY Pumas UNAM
0.57 xG 1.20
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
317 Passes 473
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
21 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 23
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca beat Pumas UNAM 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pachuca as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Pachuca had 41% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 59%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 0.57 to 1.20 — on chances, Pumas UNAM could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pachuca and 1.50 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Pumas UNAM?

Pachuca 3-1 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 21/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 45%, draw 28%, Pumas UNAM 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pachuca), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pachuca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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