Deportivo Cuenca 4-1 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 15 Jun 2025

📅15/06/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
17%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.0pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.2pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Cuenca EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +19%
1.28/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.24
-13% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +18%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
254 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 210 · 71%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
23.4 Crosses 15.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Cuenca
2W-1D-3L
AWAY El Nacional
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.96 xG 1.51
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
220 Passes 250
70% Pass Accuracy 69%
15 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.02.2025 El Nacional El Nacional 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
31.08.2024 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 1-2 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
24.03.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 2-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
26.11.2023 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 1-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
11.06.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 3-1 HT 1-1 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
31.10.2020 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 0-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Cuenca
4-1
AWAY El Nacional
3.37 xG 0.81
46% Ball Possession 54%
18 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
289 Passes 366
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
24 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Deportivo Cuenca vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Cuenca cruised past El Nacional 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Deportivo Cuenca as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Deportivo Cuenca had 46% of the ball to El Nacional's 54%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 3.37 to 0.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Deportivo Cuenca and 1.17 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of Deportivo Cuenca vs El Nacional?

Deportivo Cuenca 4-1 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 15/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Cuenca vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Cuenca win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Cuenca 45%, draw 30%, El Nacional 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Cuenca) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Cuenca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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