Kapfenberger SV 3-1 Austria Lustenau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 15 Aug 2025

📅15/08/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
4.04
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
54%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.51
2-3 Goals
33%
1.75
4-5 Goals
25%
3.05
6+ Goals
15%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
7.37
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
21.5
1/X
6%
15.8
X/1
5%
9.42
X/2
21%
4.16
X/X
15%
5.46
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.12
2/X
7%
14.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.5 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
22%
-3.7pp
28%
Draw
24%
+5.0pp
54%
Away Win
55%
-1.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.6pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kapfenberger SV EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Austria Lustenau EU Bookmakers 59%
+2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +15%
1.30/1.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.79/0.70
+12% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / +70%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
323 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 81%
11.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
11.2 Crosses 21.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kapfenberger SV
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Austria Lustenau
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 1
28.03.2025 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau 1-2 HT 0-2 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
13.09.2024 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 0-2 HT 0-1 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau AU2
22.04.2022 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 1-2 HT 1-0 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau AU2
15.10.2021 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau 6-0 HT 5-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
16.04.2021 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau 1-1 HT 0-1 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
24.11.2020 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 0-2 HT 0-1 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau AU2
POST-MATCH Kapfenberger SV vs Austria Lustenau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kapfenberger SV saw off Austria Lustenau 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Austria Lustenau at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Austria Lustenau led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Kapfenberger SV and 2.33 for Austria Lustenau.

What was the final score of Kapfenberger SV vs Austria Lustenau?

Kapfenberger SV 3-1 Austria Lustenau in the Austria - 1st Division on 15/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kapfenberger SV vs Austria Lustenau?

Before kick-off our model rated an Austria Lustenau win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Kapfenberger SV 18%, draw 28%, Austria Lustenau 54%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Austria Lustenau) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Austria Lustenau) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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