Roda 1-0 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 15 Aug 2025

📅15/08/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.33
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
2.71
6+ Goals
12%
7.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.01
1/2
11%
26.5
1/X
7%
12.05
X/1
13%
5.4
X/2
11%
6.68
X/X
10%
5.38
2/1
7%
22.35
2/2
13%
4.19
2/X
6%
12.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.0pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.2pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+3.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.8pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roda EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 36%
-6% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -4%
1.44/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.41
-7% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 78%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
19.2 Crosses 19.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roda
1W-2D-3L
AWAY De Graafschap
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.06 xG 1.43
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
283 Passes 362
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2025 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
01.09.2024 Roda Roda 1-4 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
19.04.2024 Roda Roda 1-1 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
29.09.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-0 HT 0-0 Roda Roda HOL2
19.02.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 2-0 Roda Roda HOL2
12.09.2022 Roda Roda 3-2 HT 2-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roda
1-0
AWAY De Graafschap
0.78 xG 1.25
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 9
242 Passes 369
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Roda vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda nicked a narrow win over De Graafschap 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Roda as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Roda had 41% of the ball to De Graafschap's 59%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 0.78 to 1.25 — on chances, De Graafschap could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Roda and 1.83 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of Roda vs De Graafschap?

Roda 1-0 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 15/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roda vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Roda 42%, draw 23%, De Graafschap 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roda) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Roda) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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