Kalmar 3-1 IFK Varnamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.74
Over 2.5
52%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.94
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
3.96
6+ Goals
7%
18.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.83
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
11%
5.49
X/2
14%
5.48
X/X
12%
4.22
2/1
5%
31.0
2/2
20%
3.82
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
13.1
Value flag · 2/X at 13.1 — our 9% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
36%
-2.2pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.9pp
38%
Away Win
35%
+3.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
54%
-5.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
46%
+5.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.0pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kalmar EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Varnamo EU Bookmakers 39%
-9% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.11/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.41
-36% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
400 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 78%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
19.4 Crosses 17.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kalmar
5W-0D-1L
AWAY IFK Varnamo
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.36 xG 1.08
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
490 Passes 396
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2024 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-2 HT 0-2 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
29.10.2023 Kalmar Kalmar 1-3 HT 0-1 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
22.05.2023 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-1 HT 0-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
15.10.2022 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 1-3 HT 1-1 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
27.06.2022 Kalmar Kalmar 1-0 HT 1-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
20.02.2016 Kalmar Kalmar 2-1 HT 0-1 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kalmar
3-1
AWAY IFK Varnamo
2.57 xG 2.25
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 23
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 11
412 Passes 349
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 39
12 Crosses 39
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kalmar vs IFK Varnamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kalmar got the better of IFK Varnamo 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Kalmar made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Kalmar had 53% of the ball to IFK Varnamo's 47%, shots finished 17-23, expected goals 2.57 to 2.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kalmar had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Kalmar and 0.83 for IFK Varnamo.

What was the final score of Kalmar vs IFK Varnamo?

Kalmar 3-1 IFK Varnamo in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kalmar vs IFK Varnamo?

Before kick-off our model rated an IFK Varnamo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Kalmar 34%, draw 27%, IFK Varnamo 38%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (IFK Varnamo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (IFK Varnamo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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