Cagliari 0-4 Napoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 15 Sep 2024

Cagliari
0-4 HT 0-1
Napoli
📅15/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Cagliari vs Napoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
47%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.37
6+ Goals
10%
12.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 27% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
6.6
1/2
9%
23.15
1/X
8%
14.9
X/1
11%
8.75
X/2
16%
4.12
X/X
12%
5.11
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.31
2/X
6%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
23%
+3.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.7pp
47%
Away Win
52%
-5.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cagliari v Napoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cagliari EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli EU Bookmakers 56%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -9%
1.14/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.00
-6% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -7%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
291 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 83%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
19.5 Crosses 17.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.7

Cagliari vs Napoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cagliari
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Napoli
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.09 xG 2.29
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
242 Passes 501
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 36
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.02.2024 Cagliari Cagliari 1-1 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
16.12.2023 Napoli Napoli 2-1 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
21.02.2022 Cagliari Cagliari 1-1 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
26.09.2021 Napoli Napoli 2-0 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
02.05.2021 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
03.01.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 1-4 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA

Cagliari 0-4 Napoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cagliari
0-4
AWAY Napoli
1.02 xG 1.93
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
341 Passes 336
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 27
32 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cagliari vs Napoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli swept aside Cagliari 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Napoli as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Cagliari had 52% of the ball to Napoli's 48%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 1.02 to 1.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Cagliari and 1.83 for Napoli.

What was the final score of Cagliari vs Napoli?

Cagliari 0-4 Napoli in the Italy - Serie A on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cagliari vs Napoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Cagliari 27%, draw 26%, Napoli 47%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ Over 2.5
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