Monza 1-1 Inter — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 15 Sep 2024

Monza
1-1 HT 0-0
Inter
📅15/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
57%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.56
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.37
6+ Goals
10%
12.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.37 — our 29% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
13.0
1/2
6%
24.0
1/X
8%
21.3
X/1
8%
15.35
X/2
16%
3.39
X/X
9%
6.17
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
35%
1.68
2/X
5%
20.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
14%
+7.3pp
22%
Draw
20%
+2.0pp
57%
Away Win
66%
-9.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.4pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Inter EU Bookmakers 71%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.23/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.25/0.91
+53% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +9%
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
276 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 469 · 84%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.6
15.9 Crosses 23.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monza
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Inter
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
1.12 xG 2.80
51% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
429 Passes 389
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
13.01.2024 Monza Monza 1-5 HT 0-2 Inter Inter İTA
19.08.2023 Inter Inter 2-0 HT 1-0 Monza Monza İTA
15.04.2023 Inter Inter 0-1 HT 0-0 Monza Monza İTA
07.01.2023 Monza Monza 2-2 HT 1-2 Inter Inter İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
1-1
AWAY Inter
0.24 xG 1.66
40% Ball Possession 60%
5 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 8
338 Passes 531
84% Pass Accuracy 89%
4 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Monza vs Inter
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monza and Inter shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Inter at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Monza had 40% of the ball to Inter's 60%, shots finished 5-16, expected goals 0.24 to 1.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Inter led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Monza and 2.25 for Inter.

What was the final score of Monza vs Inter?

Monza 1-1 Inter in the Italy - Serie A on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Inter?

Before kick-off our model rated an Inter win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Monza 21%, draw 22%, Inter 57%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Inter) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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