Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 15 Sep 2024

Atletico Paranaense
1-1 HT 1-1
Fortaleza
📅15/09/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.11
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.76
6+ Goals
10%
16.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 27% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.56
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.25
X/1
13%
4.18
X/2
13%
7.7
X/X
13%
4.69
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
8%
5.98
2/X
7%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-4.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Paranaense v Fortaleza — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 28%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -5%
1.49/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.44
+2% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 78%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
22.0 Crosses 16.6
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8

Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Fortaleza
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.93 xG 1.09
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
294 Passes 308
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.06.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
09.11.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
10.07.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
06.10.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 0-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
13.06.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
24.10.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 3-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1

Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Fortaleza — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1-1
AWAY Fortaleza
2.96 xG 1.07
55% Ball Possession 45%
30 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 3
14 Corners 4
391 Passes 308
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
41 Box Touches 10
29 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Paranaense at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 55% of the ball to Fortaleza's 45%, shots finished 30-10, expected goals 2.96 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortaleza led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.17 for Fortaleza.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza?

Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Fortaleza in the Brazil - Serie A on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 45%, draw 28%, Fortaleza 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✓ Under 2.5
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